The Early ROI Problem Behind MLB’s Biggest Contracts in 2026

Several MLB clubs have made the bold decision to go all-in with their superstars, offering decade-long contracts with jaw-dropping average annual values (AAV). Going all-in represents a strategy driven by probability, foresight, and confidence. The term itself is derived from smoky 19th-century saloon poker tables, where a cool traveler might hold onto her hand and bet modestly until the river drops an ace of the same suit to complete a royal flush. Then she goes all-in.

Of course, a royal flush is a guaranteed win, and the perfect time to push every chip to the center of the table.

Applying that “hold ’em” metaphor to MLB and the staggering contracts handed out to franchise superstars, the all-in strategy is already showing troubling signs of risk. In the cases of the New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, and Philadelphia Phillies, what once appeared to be a royal flush when the ink dried on these mega-deals is now facing scrutiny. So far in 2026, going all-in has not produced the return on investment (ROI) that once seemed safe and secure.

Let’s examine three clubs that appeared on nearly every expert’s list of contenders entering the season. Each organization committed massive sums to a franchise cornerstone . Players destined for accolades, enshrinement, and the status of organizational catalysts worthy of an all-in gamble.

These clubs may have the financial resources to absorb contracts spanning more than a decade, but that does not mean ownership and fan bases are content to wait patiently while their seasons drift toward disappointment. At some point, these superstars must begin earning their keep and delivering the production expected from investments of this magnitude.

Mets’ All-In Gamble on Soto Already Under Pressure

New York Mets (14–21, 11.5 GB) | Juan Soto: 15 Years, $765M ($51M AAV)

It might have been too easy to label Soto as the new edition of Albert Pujols. Bursting onto the scene with power to all fields, and an ability to get on base, draw walks, and generally drive opposing pitchers crazy, Soto has earned his superstar status label through the first nine seasons of his illustrious career. Aside from a fairly similar on-base percentage, the comparisons to Pujols effectively stop there.

Pujols was an absolute destroyer through his first seven seasons in MLB, averaging over 40 home runs and 120 RBI over that span. His production continued to improve towards his age 30 and 31 seasons, effectively leading the Cardinals to a second World Series Championship during his initial 11-year tenure in the Gateway City.

Soto hit the pinnacle of achievements during his second year in MLB, with a dramatic World Series Championship for the Nationals. He was a catalyst in a balanced lineup, if not stellar. Soto proved again with the Yankees in 2024 that he could help carry a team, along with Aaron Judge, as the World Series returned to the Bronx for the first time since 2009.

Soto was the prize of the 2025 free agent class, but with an asking cap that appeared totally non-existent, the Mets, and majority owner Steve Cohen were not to be outbid. Soto has produced, to the tune of an (almost) 40/40 season last year, while playing a respectable right field.

This season, though, Soto has started with annoying tweaks and minor injuries that have either left him sidelined with stints on the IL or relegated him to DH duties, both of which have left a deflating ripple effect on the hobbling Mets. The on-base machine is starting to flash his former self, and he has picked things up in the power department, with four home runs in just under 100 plate appearances. The Mets can get hot and back into the race, but if they don’t, much of the blame will be placed solely on Soto.

Guerrero’s Slow Start Raises Early Questions in Toronto

Toronto Blue Jays (16–22, 10 GB) | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 14 Years, $500M ($35.7M AAV)

Vladdy’s torrid playoff performance in 2025 led most analysts to predict an offensive breakout season akin to his 2021 season. Unfortunately for the Jays and their fanbase, they have had to bear witness to another of what has become an annual pattern of slow starts in the power department. The Blue Jays front office, led by President/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, appeared on the fence for some time about whether they truly believed in Vlad Jr’s ability to live up to his enormous talent and pedigree.

Once the Jays proved to be in contention, with Vladdy heating up at just the right time, the offer was finally made, in effect making the five-time All-Star a Blue Jay for life. He responded by pounding the baseball through the second half of the season, to put the Jays in first place in the AL East, and of course, mere inches away from capturing a World Series title over the Dodgers.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s DataStreak Charts

Now just over a month into the 2026 season, Guerrero’s power numbers are abysmal, as he sits sixth on the team, with just two bombs, one less than rookie catcher Brandon Valenzuela, who

has roughly a third of the total plate appearances as Guerrero. He might not refer to himself as a leader, but Vlad certainly has the respect of the league and his teammates universally. Perhaps it is his swing plane that keeps the ball in the yard? Maybe he is being too selective and not aggressive enough.

Optimists will point to his batting average and assert that he is getting his hits. The big money is intended for those who will do damage; they’ll crush the hopes of the opposition, with a fifth-inning three-run home run that lands in the second deck. They are the ones that leave a psychological imprint on every team that they visit. Vlad was one of those guys. What happened? With the exception of last year’s phenomenal playoff performance, the ROI on Vladdy’s contract is not yet breaking even. He has been a disappointment, at a time when he is supposed to be in his prime, and freely playing his very best.